We will look at actual theories and methods used by the experts to assign a probability of global nuclear war. We will utilize the frequentist inference, the Bayesian inference, and even superforecasting, which holds that the more degrees of uncertainty you can distinguish, the better poker player you are likely to be.
Over the next six months, I will be publishing a series of blogs on the likelihood of strategic global nuclear war. Although I am not a certified expert on the subject, during my five years of preparation for writing the First Strike Series, I have read hundreds of articles and books from prominent think tanks about strategic nuclear war with Russia and China.
Presaging Conditions for a Nuclear War and the Possibility of Global Strategic Nuclear War
The Air Quality Index in New York City at 5:00 PM on Wednesday, June 7, 2023, was 484, which is considered hazardous. Philadelphia issued a code red warning.