We will look at actual theories and methods used by the experts to assign a probability of global nuclear war. We will utilize the frequentist inference, the Bayesian inference, and even superforecasting, which holds that the more degrees of uncertainty you can distinguish, the better poker player you are likely to be.
Over the next six months, I will be publishing a series of blogs on the likelihood of strategic global nuclear war. Although I am not a certified expert on the subject, during my five years of preparation for writing the First Strike Series, I have read hundreds of articles and books from prominent think tanks about strategic nuclear war with Russia and China.
Presaging Conditions for a Nuclear War and the Possibility of Global Strategic Nuclear War
The Air Quality Index in New York City at 5:00 PM on Wednesday, June 7, 2023, was 484, which is considered hazardous. Philadelphia issued a code red warning.
As I stated in the preface to Book I in 1945 only one man, President Truman could push the button or make the decision to use nuclear weapons in combat. Now that decision rests with thousands of individuals worldwide and is growing.
If the United States and China were to face off in the South China Sea, it would be vitally important to US success to take out the Chinese version of our AWACS known as the Shaanxi KJ-500. To do that, the Raptor would have to slip behind a forward screen of J-20 and soon-to-be J-31 fifth-generation stealth fighters.
Our ozone layer is made up of tons of O3 molecules bound together to protect us from the sun’s ultraviolet rays. Without our ozone layer, life on Earth would be impossible. Here is a sneak preview of what happens if Earth’s atmosphere were suddenly inundated by smoke and debris from an earthquake, a volcano, or a nuclear war—even if we “won.” Our history shows that we have had multiple major volcanic eruptions that have led to several “dark” periods where sunlight had trouble reaching Earth. But the difference between that and the smoke a nuclear war injects into the atmosphere is chemically different. That’s why a nuclear war is much more harmful to the ozone layer.