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THOMAS J. YEGGY
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​My Thoughts on Current Events
AKA My Blog

PART III A: The Carl Kaysen–Henry Rowen Attack Plan Logistics (9/5/1961)

11/4/2023

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Uncover the logistics of the Carl Kaysen–Henry Rowen 9/5/1961 Attack Plan, a chilling Cold War military strategy. Explore the intricacies of the plan's weapon systems, primary targets, and potential consequences. Dive into the historical details of this intense period in world history.
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You can’t have this kind of war. There just aren’t enough bulldozers to scrape the bodies off the streets.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1953
The dynamics of the 1961 Berlin Crisis between the United States and the Soviet Union resulted in a military plan called Live Oak. The plan called for the US military to open the autobahn to Berlin by conventional force if it was closed by the East Germans after the Soviet Union handed over governance to the East Germans. The Nato forces would commit as many as seven divisions in an effort to open the Autobahn. If the Soviets utilized their twenty divisions in East Germany the next step would involve tactical nuclear weapons.(https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_136184.htm.)The plan was a graduated escalation to general war and saw no logical end other than a mutual suicide pact. Perhaps Dean Acheson unwittingly described this modality best during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
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In 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Dean Acheson had a verbal exchange with the Executive Committee (ExCom), exposing the primary problems with Live Oak. He had portrayed himself as an expert on the Berlin situation by delivering a lengthy memo in June 1961 that was circulated widely in the Kennedy Administration. Now, Acheson burst into the Cabinet Room and forcefully stated that we should take out Russia’s missiles in Cuba. This is the type of conversation that would have taken place during the Berlin 61 Crisis during such events as the building of the wall on August 13,1961 if for example Lauris Norstad had his way and the US would have knocked the wall down.

“Well, what will they do then?” someone queried.

Acheson responded, “I know the Soviet Union well. I know what they are required to do in light of their history and their posture around the world. I think they will knock out our missiles in Turkey.”

“Well, then, what do we do?” the person asked.

Acheson replied quickly, “I believe under our NATO treaty, with which I was associated, we would be required to respond by knocking out a missile base inside the Soviet Union.”

“Then what will they do?” queried another member of ExCom.

“That’s when we hope that cooler heads will prevail, and they'll stop and talk,” Acheson stated.

No one had any idea how or when to employ nuclear weapons even during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Some have questioned the October 28, 1961, draft presidential memorandum as inconsistent with a successful attack because it only utilized 10 B-52s. Because most targets were in western Russia, it was not difficult for the four aircraft carriers and the ten Polaris submarines to get within range of several important targets. The B-47s to be used were located at three bases in Spain but could be forward staged in Germany. I will explore those logistics in Part V.

One important point needs to be reinforced before we proceed. The Tu-16, even from the most optimal forward staging bases, had insufficient range to reach the United States loaded with even one nuclear bomb on a one-way mission. Despite that fact, the target list contains numerous Tu-16 bases.This is inconsistent with the purpose of the counterforce plans to force surrender. I believe those bases were included to assuage European fears discussed in previous joint plans. But could the 2nd wave eliminate all the medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) sites? Probably not even though the 2nd wave constituted massive firepower. These MRBM sites presented a grave danger to the NATO alliance and may have resulted in 35 million European deaths even if only five of the nearly 100 sites were missed.
​
Finally, we should realize that the list of 1,100 targets released through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) was based on 1956 information. Contrast that with the sixty-two targets selected by the Kaysen-Rowen plan based on 1961 information that utilized not only U-2 photos but more importantly discoverer satellite photos. I believe that if the attack came out of the blue, the target list would be twenty -six or fewer strategic targets. Even so, I have included many Tu-16 air bases because they fit into the plan, and a few Tu-95 or 3M bombers could be located at those bases.

The Kaysen-Rowen Plan Logistics Including Follow on Forces and Expanded targets

1. Weapons Systems

A. B-52 units – fifty-five B-52 G and H models

  1. 4038th Strategic Wing, Dow AFB, Maine, 341st Bombardment Squadron, twelve B-52Gs flying northern route
  2. 4042nd Strategic Wing, K. I. Sawyer AFB, Michigan, flying B-52H, twelve planes flying northern route
  3. 4136th Strategic Wing, Minot AFB, North Dakota, 525th Bombardment Squadron flying B-52H, twelve planes flying southern route
  4. 379th Bombardment Wing, Wurtsmith AFB, Michigan, 524th Bombardment Squadron, twelve planes flying B-52H on southern route
  5. 42nd Bombardment Wing, Loring AFB, Maine, flying seven B-52G planes, two on western route and five on northern route 
B. Twenty-five B-47Es carrying four B-28 (1.1–1.45 Mt each) with a 2,100–2,359 combat radius from the following bases:
  1. Norvenich 50°49′54″N 006°39′30″E
  2. Erding 48°19′21″N 011°56′55″E
  3. Buchel 50°10′35″N 007°03′28″E
  4. Wiesbaden 50°02′58″N 08°19′28″E
  5. Ramstein 49°26’21”N 007°36’02”E
25 b-47es
C. Five George Washington Polaris ballistic missile subs located at various locations in the Barents Sea. The missile range, 1,400 miles for A-1 polaris missiles

D. Three Ethan Allen Classs Polaris ballistic missile submarines located in the Adriatic and Agean  with missile range of 1,700 miles for A-2

E. The following five aircraft carriers located in the Mediterranean, the Pacific, the North Sea, and the Eastern Mediterranean: USS Independence CV-62 Adriatic; USS Forrestal CV-59 Barents, USS Saratoga CV-60 Agean, USS Ranger Okhotsk Sea, USS Enterprise CVN-65 North Sea

F. Forty-five Jupiter missiles in Turkey and Italy; 1,500-mile range, 1.15–1.44 Mt W-49 warhead
​
G. Sixty Thor missiles located in England, 2,000-mile range, 1.1–1.44 Mt W-49 warhead
NOT ALL THESE WEAPON SYSTEMS WOULD OR COULD  BE USED. IN Part V  WE WILL PAIR WEAPONS AND TARGETS CONSISTENT WITH THE KAYSEN OR 10-28-61 DPM.

2. Primary Targets

A. ICBM sites to be taken out by B-52H planes from #2, the 4042nd Strategic Wing
  1. Tyuratam-Baikonur 45°39’N 63°18’50”E ICBM four launch sites #2
  2. Plesetsk Cosmodrome 62°55′32″N 40°34′40″E ICBM #2
  3. YurYa 59°02’N 49°16’E ICBM #2
  4. Kostroma 57°46’05”N 40°55’37”E ICBM #2
ICBM sites to be taken out by B-52H planes
B. Major Air Bases
  1. Engels-2 51°28′52″N 046°12′38″E M-4 and the 3M
  2. Dolon (MB) aka Chagan and Semipalitinsk Dolon 50°32′N 079°11′0″E, Tu-95, Tu95, 3M and M-4 
  3. Ukrainka Air Base 51°10′12″N 128°26′42″E in 1955, Ukrainka was one of only six Soviet bases capable of handling the Myasishchev M-4 (NATO: Bison) bomber
  4. Belaya/Tserkov aka Bila Tserkva 49°47′46″N 30°01′28″E, heavy bomber base Tu-16 and later Tu-16N
  5. Soltsy Air Base 58°8′48″N 030°19′54″E
  6. Uzyn Air Base 49°47′25″N 30°26′27″E, Tu-95K stand-off missile carriers starting in 1959
  7. Siauliai Air Base 55°53′38″N 023°23′41″E, Staging for M-4 bombers that can reach US
  8. Tiski 71°41′51″N 128°54′10″E, Tu-95 staging base
  9. Tiski North 72°2′18″N 128°28′18″E, Tu-95 staging base
  10. Tiski West 71°41′36″N 128°41′0″E, Tu-95 staging base
  11. Ozerne (MB) 50°9′30″N 028°44′18″E, 15th Guard’s Heavy Bomber Division Tu-16
  12. Baranovichi (MB) 53°5′7″N 26°2′8″E (Belarus), Tu-16 base deployed Tu-16 bombers to Tiski and onward to ice station SP-6
  13. Belaya (MB) aka Srednii 52°54′54″N 103°34′30″E, Tu-4A, Tu-16, Tu-16K
  14. Aspidnoye (SB) aka Dresba-Krumaya 69°21′48″N 161°33′42″E, Arctic staging base for Tu-95 and Tu-16
  15. Dyagilevo (MB) 54°38′30″N 039°34′18″E M-4
  16. Lebedovo 51°17′0″N 046°15′0″E, dispersal site for bombers from Engels during high tension
  17. Leningrad Air Control Center 60°03’N 030°11’E
  18. Mengon (SB) 50°02’00” 136°18’00”E, dispersal base 
  19. Moscow/Bykovo Command and Control 55°37’N 38°03’E
  20. Mozdok 43°47′15″N 44°36′11″E, Tu-95 base
  21. Vozdvizhenka aka Ussuriysk 43°54′44″N 131°55′04″E, Pacific Long Range Bomber Fleet Tu-16
  22. Melitopol 46°52′36″N 035°18′27″E
  23. Pochinok 54°20′24″N 032°28′24″E
  24. Seshcha 53°43’N 033°21’E
  25. Ostrov/Gorokhovo 57°18′0″N 028°26′0″E, Tu-16K and Tu-16Z
  26. Soltsy Air Base 58°8′48″N 030°19′54″E, Tu-22
  27. Spassk-Dalny Airfield 44°36′47″N 132°53′13″E, Tu-16
  28. Tartu 58°24’N 026°46E
  29. Minsk-Machulische 53°46′25″N 027°34′38″E
  30. Bobruysk 53°6′17″N 29°12′21″E, threat to NATO allies
  31. Pryluky Air Base 50°34′0″N 032°19′0″E, Tu-16 medium bombers
  32. Poltava Air Base 49°37′37″N 034°29′11″E, Tu-16
  33. Zhitomir/Skomorokhi 50°10’N 028°44’E
  34. Poltava Air Base 49°37′37″N 034°29′11″E, Tu-16
  35. Bykhov 53°31’N 30°12’E, one 1959 target list
  36. Orsha/Orsha S.W. 54°26’N 30°17’E
  37. Gomel/Pribytki 52°18’N 031°10’E
major air bases
This List concludes the list of air bases to be bombed. Keep in mind that there were fewer than 160 Soviet intercontinental two-way bombers. The following article may interest you concerning the Tu-16's range. The Soviets had over 950 Tu-16s available by 1962.
Richard D. English and Dan I. Bolef, “Defense against Bomber Attack,” Scientific American 229, no. 2 (August 1973), 11–19.

Quote from the above article:
It has been suggested, however, that the medium-range bombers could be used on one-way "suicide" missions against the U.S. Even assuming Russian willingness to sacrifice the planes and their crews, such missions seem unlikely. The Tu-22, under the best of conditions, has insufficient range for even a one-way trip. The Tu-16, if it were based at the tip of the Kola Peninsula in the northwestern U.S.S.R. or the Chukchi Peninsula in the northeastern U.S.S.R., and if it were flown at optimum speed and altitude, could perhaps reach some parts of the U.S. The bomber forces are not based on the Kola or Chukchi peninsulas, however, but farther inland, which increases the distance to their potential targets. Moreover, on combat missions evasive maneuvers necessary to avoid detection and interception would further reduce their range. For reasons such as these the International Institute for Strategic Studies has concluded that "Soviet [medium-range] bombers can strike at United States allies anywhere on the Eurasian landmass and also at Canada, but not at the United States itself." Similar views have been expressed by recent secretaries of defense, from Robert S. McNamara through Elliot L. Richardson.

A. Submarine and Naval Bases

  • Arkhangelsk 64°26’N 40°23’E (see also Lakhta I Naval base 64°23′0″N 40°43′0″E, Tu-16 base) (see also Arkhangelsk/Yagoon 64°24’N 40°54’E)
  • Balaklava Crimea 44°29′56″N 33°35′46″E, submarine pen deeply fortified needs Mt or more
  • Baltiysk Naval Base 54°39'16.38"N 19°54'33.44"E
  • Belmorsk 64°31’N 34°46’E, submarine base
  • Gadzhiyevo aka Yagelnaya Guba 69.258878° 33.335251°, located on the eastern shore of Guba Sayda (Sayda Bay), Murmanskaya Oblast Naval Base Northern Fleet
  • Karosta-Leipaja (submarines) 56°33′0″N 21°0′20″E, Baltic Fleets 14th Submarine Squadron
  • Malaya Lopatka-Bolshaya Lopatka 69°26'12"N 32°25'30"E, only 2 miles apart –main sub base
  • Olenya (SB) near Skalisty less than 2 miles NE 68°09′06″N 033°28′12″E, Tu-22 first detected in 1957 and served as forward staging base; many SAM sites in this area, also Naval base
  • Ostrovnoy (Gremikha-Yokanga) 68°03′N 39°30′E, main service base for nuclear subs
  • Polyarnyy 69°12’N 33°28’E
  • Ura Bay Naval Base 69°19′N 32°48′E, and Ara Bay
  • Severomorsk 69.0690°N, 33.4082°E, Northern Fleet home base
  • Vidyayevo, aka Ura Bay, Northern Fleet Naval Base 69°19′N 32°48′E, diesel-powered subs
  • Zapadnaya Lista aka Bolshaya Lopatka (Lista Guba) 69°25’N 32°26’E, nuclear sub base 
  • Severodvinsk 64°34′N 39°52′E
  • Sevastopol 44°36′28″N 33°31′48″E Black Sea Fleet
  • Liepaja (Karosta) 56°33′0″N 21°0′20″E, Baltic Fleet Submarine Base 
  • Bechevinka 53°16′21″N 159°47′04″E, Pacific Submarine Base
Submarine and Naval Bases
​This is the end of Part III A. Pairing of weapons systems with targets will come in Part IV.

Final Note

​As the conflicts in the Middle East and the Ukraine continue, I am reminded of the basic nature of man as expounded by Caleb Young in the First Strike series during his home schooling. I wonder how long it will be before nuclear weapons are unleashed by those who do not share my same values in this regard.
go to part III
go to part IV
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