Nuclear Near Misses Are Usually Intertwined with Command-and-Control Issues

At the start of this series, I promised you that I would investigate the history of nuclear near misses, where either human error, Intelligence failure, rogue elements, or sensory malfunctions created conditions conducive to the accidental rather than intentional outbreak of nuclear war.

Certainly, the most interesting series of events in this regard took place on October 28th ,1962 at about 7pm in the Sargasso Sea 300 miles northeast of Cuba. The United States Navy had detected and corralled a Soviet Foxtrot submarine that had been unable to communicate with Moscow for several hours due to constant evasive actions taken in the preceding thirty-six hours in a vain attempt to avoid detection.

The USS Beale, an American destroyer, had begun signaling protocol to the submarine demanding that it surface and identify itself. The Beale had dropped several series of five practice depth charges followed by a pause. Captain of the B-59, Captain Second Rank Valentin Grigorievitch Savitsky, mistakenly determined the submarine was under attack and ordered the firing of a nuclear tipped torpedo that would have sunk the Randolph, a US aircraft carrier.

The following excerpt from an un-published version of Armageddon, Book III of the First Strike Series was corroborated by the Soviet Navy at a 1992 Conference in Havana, Cuba.

October 27, 1962 – 1600–2100 Hours B-59, Sargasso Sea

“Since the initial sighting on October 25, the hunt for the B-59 had been vigorous. Hundreds of ASW planes swarmed like bees and tried to find the elusive sub. The B-59 had surfaced after dark on the 26th, taking full advantage of a squall to obtain some much-needed hydration. The coiling system had been fouled by the higher salinity content of the Caribbean. The packing glands were leaking. The electric air compressors had broken down. The crew’s desalination equipment wasn’t working. Even though temperatures rose to 40–60 degrees Centigrade, each man was limited to one cup of water per day. Conditions exceeded what the human body can endure for more than a day or two. The sub was forced to submerge again on the morning of the 27th by the arrival of another S2F-3 from the Randolph, this one piloted by LTJG William Moroney. The sub’s batteries were still below a forty percent charge, and the sub could only remain submerged for thirty-six hours with limited maneuverability. It could not escape. Decision time. Savitsky knew they were going to face this moment of truth when one of the interpreters came to him on the bridge at 0800 hours on the 27th. “The full force of the HUK Group Alpha spearheaded by the Randolph has pivoted in our direction.”

It took some time but by 1500 hours on the 28th Savitsky could see the search pattern of the three destroyers from the carrier group would envelop the B-59. Savitsky barked out orders. “Left full rudder. We’ll circle and make them think we are running. We will dive and then go straight at them. We are at 20 kilometers now. I want to get to within 13 kilometers before we take out the carrier with the special weapon.” The B-59 slipped past the closest two destroyers, the Beale, and the Cony. At 35 knots, their sonar was virtually worthless, and they missed the B-59. But Murray, trailing the Beale and Coney, caught the noise from the B-59’s three screws. By 1641 hours, the three destroyers had encircled the B-59. Savitsky brought the B-59 to 11 meters for one last look. Randolph sat at 12,500 meters. “Take her down to 50 meters’ Savitsky barked. By the time the depth charges started at 1705 hours, Savitsky had the B-59 nearly positioned to make a major tactical strike for the Soviet Union. The sonar from the three destroyers was pinging at 235 decibels. The (practice depth Charges) PDCs echoed like sledgehammer blows on an empty barrel. The B-59 went all-stop. Additional Juliets were in the water pinging away on the B-59's hull. The Juliet pings were so loud that they were indistinguishable from conventional depth charges. Savitsky was sure he was under attack. “Battle stations!” Arkhipov was satisfied that should war erupt, the captain had positioned the B-59 to inflict the maximum damage on the American fleet. The maneuvering had been brilliant. Still, there was no word from the radio about the outbreak of surface hostilities. Moscow was eerily quiet. One thing was for damn sure. If Savitsky fired the special weapon and took out every American ship within a 12-kilometer radius, World War III would begin.

Arkhipov remembered his session with Penkovsky at GRU headquarters. How much could he rely on what he had been told? Arkhipov knew they were down to less than one hour of battery time. Men were falling like dominoes from heat exhaustion. Savitsky had endured his fill of the Imperialist. “Bow torpedo room, assemble the special weapon. Captain Second Rank Arkhipov and Comrade Maslennikov, report to the bridge!” Savitsky screamed into the sub's intercom. Savitsky had to shout to be heard over five more depth charges and the continuing pings. The torpedo room reported. “Captain, the purple-nosed torpedo is ready for loading.”

Savitsky did not hesitate. Any moment a depth charge could obliterate his opportunity to take out the ASW Task Force. “Bow torpedo room, load the special weapon in tube six, and flood tube six. Michman Mikhailov, set in a solution in the fire control computer tube six for the carrier. Detonate at 35 meters subsurface.” Arkhipov and Ivan Maslennikov arrived at the bridge at 1956 hours. Savitsky knew they were under attack. To him, the rattling and pounding on the hull sounded like fully loaded depth charges. The communications antenna was already damaged, and despite a report to the contrary, Savitsky believed the sub had sustained significant other harm during the nearly three-hour siege. Savitsky shouted at Arkhipov, “The war has already started up there, and we are down here doing somersaults. We’re going to blast them now. We’ll die, but we will sink them all. We won’t disgrace our Navy or shame the fleet.” Michman Mikhailov’s voice rose over the din. “Fire control solution loaded and ready for torpedo tube six, on target for carrier range 12,465 meters ready for firing.” The captain turned to Zampolti Maslennikov. “Captain Third Rank Ivan Ivanovich Maslennikov, do you concur with my order to fire the special weapon?” “Da, Captain Savitsky!” Arkhipov remained mute. This was the moment in his life when he had to make his biggest decision. Then he spoke. “Captain, Comrade Rybalko said we were only to use the special weapon if the hull was ruptured, or we were certain we were under attack.” Maslennikov whirled, indignant. “The captain is correct. We are under attack, and war has broken out. We need to stop the Americans from invading Cuba. Their intention is clear. They tried it just last year, and their military buildup has made it clear that they are going to do it again. We have soldiers on that island. They are depending on us to do our duty even if it means we go down.” Savitsky was no less irritated. “Captain Second Rank Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov, Vice Chief of Staff for the 69th Brigade Commander Captain First Rank Vasili Agafonov, do you concur with my decision?

“Nyet!” Savitsky grabbed the front of Arkhipov’s uniform and shook him. “You have one minute to explain your answer before I have you removed from the control center.” Despite the surrounding furor and his captain’s wrath, Arkhipov remained calm. “Captain Savitsky, do you not believe the Americans could have sent us to the bottom by now if they wanted to? They have been on top of us for three hours. They have our exact position. The depth charges are not fully loaded and are not meant to damage us. They are signals to surface. They are always dropped in a series of five and always explode more than 50 meters away. They have nuclear depth charges that could have torn us to pieces. We are not under attack and war has not commenced. The interpreters have not heard any declarations of war on American radio. Senior Lieutenant Orlov has been monitoring communications with the aircraft and the carrier indicating they are not to drop torpedoes or depth charges but merely to locate and surface what they are calling C-19, which is us. The instructions from Admiral Rybalko are clear and we have not received any instructions from Moscow. Now, you will belay your order and have the special weapon taken out of torpedo tube six before you start something that will kill millions. Am I clear?” Second Lieutenant Orlov seconded the reasoning. “Captain, our intercepts of all the American communications between the Randolph and its aircraft and destroyers confirms the Vice Chief of Staff’s statements. They are not coding their messages. They want us to know their intentions. Captain Arkhipov is correct. Let us surface and fully recharge our batteries. Then we could lose the Americans. If they wanted us dead, we would be so already. Send out a single ping. Either that will silence them, or they will destroy us. It will also give you more accurate readings for fire control just in case. You have nothing to lose.” Savitsky hesitated, not fully processing the logic because of the deplorable conditions. Then he ordered, “Sonar, send out one full powered, high-frequency ping.” The Michman asked for confirmation over the intercom. “Yes, this is Captain Savitsky. Send out one full-powered, high frequency ping. Only one.”
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The ping went out loud and clear. It was answered with the most beautiful silence anyone aboard the sub had ever heard.” 

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Earlier that same day, two other incidents almost led to the outbreak of nuclear war.
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Captain Charles Maultsby flying a U-2 out of Eielson AFB Alaska was blinded by the Aurora Borealis causing him to take his plane over the Chukotka Peninsula some 300 miles into Soviet airspace. The Soviets gave chase. American F-102A interceptors armed with. Falcon Nuclear air to Air missiles, each with a .25 kiloton yield, were then scrambled to escort the U2 into friendly airspace. This caused President Kennedy to remark after his daily swim that “some SOB never gets the message.” On that same day there was yet another very controversial Nuclear near- miss.

Kyodo News March 27, 2015 by Ota Masakatsu

October 28th, 1962, Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan-Bolo Airfield Yomitan

Early in 1962, the United States had Staged TM-76 Mace and Nike Hercules nuclear missiles in Okinawa, Japan. The TM-76 had a range of 1250 miles and a 1.1 megaton. nuclear warhead. Although the Nike Hercules was used primarily as an anti-aircraft weapon It also could be used in a surface-to-surface combat role. At the time in question, it normally carried a W7 2.5 or 28 kiloton warhead. In a March 27,2015, article for Kyodo News Ota Masakatsu reported as follows:

“According to John Bordne, 73, former member of the 873rd Tactical Missile Squadron of the U.S. Air Force, several hours after his crew took over a midnight shift from 12 a.m. on Oct. 28 in 1962 at the Missile Launch Control Center at Yomitan Village in Okinawa, a coded order to launch missiles was conveyed in a radio communication message from the Missile Operations Center at the Kadena Air Base.”

The squadron oversaw eight of the TM-76 Mace missiles .But since they knew the Defcon level had to reach one before they could launch ,and it was then at level two. So his crew refused the order to launch. Masakatsu interviewed numerous other individuals in the 873rd TMS including Bill Horn who stated in part “I knew I was never going home .If we had launched our missiles and they had launched their missiles, there would be nothing to go back to.”
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Masakatsu’s report appeared on Kyodo News on March 27, 2015.

September 26, 1983. A day that could have lived in infamy.

Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov was the officer in charge at the command center for the Oko Nuclear Early Warning System when the system reported that a single missile had been launched from the United States. Then a few seconds later it was followed by up to five more. Petrov remained calm even though tensions had been rising between the Soviets and the US due to the Soviets shooting down Korean Airlines flight 007 just three weeks prior. Several thoughts began racing through Petrov's mind.” Why are there not more missiles? My training tells me that at least 100 missiles should be detected. Our satellite launch detection system is new and the verification process that just passed through 30 layers of control was processed too quickly. Ground radar has failed to corroborate the launch. What the hell should I do now? If I pass it up the chain of command to General Votintsev and his robot reacting launch happy crew, we could have a billion dead in 30 minutes!” Thankfully, Petrov waited. It was later determined that the false alarm had been created by a rare alignment of sunlight on Cumulonimbus clouds above North Dakota and the Molniya orbits of the satellites. A system error that was later corrected by cross-referencing geostationary satellites. A documentary film was later made about the incident starring Kevin Costner, Matt Damon, and Walter Cronkite.

See it here: The Man Who Saved the World

There have been numerous other close calls throughout the years. Far too many to mention in any depth. The following link will give you a list of thirty- two that we know about. These incidents are called “Broken Arrow(s)” Nuclear Weapons Accidents.” Many more have been “classified” and remain undisclosed.

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