We will look at actual theories and methods used by the experts to assign a probability of global nuclear war. We will utilize the frequentist inference, the Bayesian inference, and even superforecasting, which holds that the more degrees of uncertainty you can distinguish, the better poker player you are likely to be.
Over the next six months, I will be publishing a series of blogs on the likelihood of strategic global nuclear war. Although I am not a certified expert on the subject, during my five years of preparation for writing the First Strike Series, I have read hundreds of articles and books from prominent think tanks about strategic nuclear war with Russia and China.
Presaging Conditions for a Nuclear War and the Possibility of Global Strategic Nuclear War
The Air Quality Index in New York City at 5:00 PM on Wednesday, June 7, 2023, was 484, which is considered hazardous. Philadelphia issued a code red warning.
The US Air Force has retreated from Taiwan without a shot fired
40 | David Axe | Wed, May 3, 2023 at 4:27 AM PDT
F-15 Eagle fighter aircraft - Jack Guez/AFPThe US Air Force is the biggest and most powerful air force in the world: but maybe not for long. The service is struggling through twin crises – one of money, another of belief in itself – that could narrow its aerial advantage.
Lately people have been talking a bit more about the outside possibility of nuclear war with Russia based on the conflict in Ukraine. The fact that Putin has just moved nukes into Belarus is a further escalation. The purpose of this post is not to terrorize you but to let you know that in addition to the fact that hardly any medical services would be available, it is unlikely anyone would be around to need them. NYC would receive at least five 20 megaton bombs in less than 30 minutes.
The Soviets have always exhibited a certain paranoia about what they call their airspace, and I am going to share with you an event that actually happened off the northern Japanese islands in 1952 where several US Air Force personnel lost their lives. Other examples would include the shooting down of a passenger jet several years ago.
Thomas Yeggy goes for a full and complete crisis immersion in the methodical science and political book Mushroom Cloud.
Mushroom Cloud by Thomas Yeggy is the most delicious form of literary red meat for those who cannot get enough serious fiction to read in the military, science, and history genres.
As I stated in the preface to Book I in 1945 only one man, President Truman could push the button or make the decision to use nuclear weapons in combat. Now that decision rests with thousands of individuals worldwide and is growing.